Agrometeorological Early Warning Bulletin (1 – 10 January 2023) [EN/AR]

EARLY WARNING: THE PRESENCE OF FALL ARMYWORMS IS LIKELY TO BE SUSTAINED

With continued security instabilities and the novel COVID-19 pandemic undoing any economic progress, Yemen remains one of the most food and water-insecure countries across the globe. The country’s acute food shortages and water scarcity are heightened by climatic shocks which are increasingly becoming frequent. Climate-related disruptions in the water and food systems call for early warning information to inform early action. Here, agrometeorological indicators of potential climatic shocks during the period 01 – 10 January 2023 are examined.

Pests: Results indicate that while the Desert Locust situation is generally calm, field surveys show that Fall Armyworms (FAW) that have been observed across the country in the recent past are likely to be sustained in the coming week, particularly across Abyan, Taizz, Ibb, Dhamar, and across north-western to Amran and Sadah (Fig. 1).

The use of organic methods, particularly Neem, is encouraged for FAW control. Further, smearing cooking oil on plants is an effective way of attracting ants which in turn kill any FAW that may be hidden in the plants. These natural ways of eliminating FAW are strongly encouraged.

Temperature Forecast: Slightly above normal temperatures are forecasted across the country. Although temperatures will begin to warm up across much of Yemen, the highlands may still experience near-zero temperatures which are forecasted to generally range between 0 and 5° C (Fig. 2). While cold weather is known to affect human health, internally displaced people (IDPs) are especially at risk of cold shocks as makeshifts may not be sufficient protection.

Bitterly cold weather may cause serious diseases and even death. Where possible, the highlands should be avoided, or temporal shelter sought for protection against colds.

Rainfall Forecast: The January forecast shows high chances of normal to slightly drier-than-average rainfall conditions, apart from scattered showers not to exceed 10 mm across western Yemen. Monitoring of tropical storms shows continued calmness; Tropical Cyclone Darian which was active in the South Indian Ocean region as reported earlier has died off. As such, rainfall triggered by tropical activity is not expected. However, ardent following of updates is still recommended.

Source: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations