Somalia: Drought Response and Famine Prevention (15 November – 15 December 2022)

KEY DEVELOPMENT

Famine thresholds not surpassed, but the drought situation remains extremely serious as the country marks its fifth consecutive failed rainy season by year-end

Response efforts of local communities and the scale-up of humanitarian assistance in Somalia have prevented famine thresholds from being surpassed as of December 2022, according to the updated Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) Analysis. The situation however remains extremely serious as the underlying crisis has not improved and the scale and severity of the humanitarian emergency are expanding. Famine is a strong possibility from April to June 2023 and beyond if humanitarian assistance is not sustained and if the 2023 April to June rains underperform as current forecasts indicate.

OVERVIEW

According to the latest IPC analysis released on 13 December, the ongoing delivery of humanitarian assistance by humanitarian actors and local communities is mitigating the size of the acute food-insecure population and prevented the worsening of food security and nutrition outcomes to IPC Phase 5 Famine levels during the October – December period. The situation remains extremely serious, however, as the underlying crisis has not improved due to the impacts of five consecutive seasons of poor rainfall, a likely sixth season of below-average rainfall from March to June 2023, and exceptionally high food prices. The situation is exacerbated by concurrent conflict/insecurity and disease outbreaks (primarily acute watery diarrhea/cholera and measles).

The prolonged and extreme drought conditions have resulted in excess cumulative deaths and, increased malnutrition, and excess mortality will continue to accumulate unless assistance is further scaled up and sustained in crucial sectors.

Amid an anticipated scale-down in humanitarian assistance starting in April 2023 due to insufficient funding, Famine (IPC Phase 5) is projected among agropastoral populations in Baidoa and Burhakaba districts and displaced populations in Baidoa town of Bay Region and in Mogadishu between April and June 2023. In addition, several areas and population groups in central and southern Somalia are at risk of Famine.

According to the IPC, the non-declaration of a Famine for the October to December 2022 period, however, does not necessarily represent an improvement in the drought situation, rather it reaffirms a continuation of an extremely serious situation. Nearly 50 per cent of the population in Somalia – 7.8 million people – are estimated to be affected by the longest and most severe drought in the country’s recent history. Over 1.3 million people are internally displaced due to drought and more than 50,000 Somalis, including those affected by the drought, have sought safety and assistance in Ethiopia and Kenya. More than 3.5 million livestock have died since mid-2021, devastating livelihoods and reducing children’s access to milk.

About 5.6 million people are facing acute food insecurity; 241,000 in Catastrophe through December 2022

While 6.7 million people had been projected to be facing IPC 3 and above from October through December, the updated IPC analysis indicates that between October and December 2022, about 5.6 million people across Somalia are experiencing high levels of acute food insecurity classified in Crisis or worse (IPC Phase 3 or above), including 1.5 million classified in Emergency (IPC Phase 4) and 214,000 in Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5). The population facing Crisis or worse (IPC Phase 3 or above) is expected to increase to more than 6.3 million between January and March 2023, including 322,000 in Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5), and about 1.8 million children under 5 will likely face acute malnutrition through June, including over 513,000 who are expected to be severely malnourished.

Update on Deyr rainfall performance

According to FEWSNET, despite localized light to moderate rains in the south in early to mid-November, most of Somalia remained dry in December. Cumulative rainfall deficits since the start of the Deyr season in October are much larger, ranging from 25 to 70 per cent below average across most of Somalia. Given currently below-average Deyr rainfall performance and with no rainfall forecasted in the Ethiopian highlands, river water levels in the Juba and Shabelle basins in southern Somalia will be atypically low in the coming weeks, according to the FAO SWALIM. The rains received so far provided immediate relief to water stress, but as the Deyr season comes to a peak, more rains are required to meet the deep groundwater deficit across the country and end the current drought conditions across Somalia.

Source: UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs