Live Briefing: Ukraine In The Crosshairs
Welcome to our live briefing on the massive buildup of Russian military forces near Ukraine’s border, and the diplomatic efforts under way to prevent a possible invasion by Moscow.
Here’s an overview — updated throughout the day– of what we know about the standoff between Moscow and Kyiv and threats of a further Russian move against its western neighbor.
Have a question about the crisis? Let us know by e-mailing us at webteam@rferl.org. Your questions will inform our future reporting.
Here Are The Latest Developments
The United States has rejected Russia’s demand to halt further NATO expansion, but offered what it called a “serious diplomatic path.”
The U.S. said it was in touch with gas and oil suppliers from the Mideast, North Africa, and Asia to bolster supplies to Europe.
Russia reiterated its threat of “appropriate measures” if the West does not respond to its demands.
More U.S. military hardware, including Javelin anti-tank missiles, arrived in Kyiv on January 25.
Washington warns Belarus not to assist Russia in invading Ukraine.
Up to 8,500 U.S. troops are on “heightened alert” for potential deployment.
West Sounds The Alarm On Russia. Ukraine Sends A Different Message: Keep Calm And Carry On.
In Washington, the message is: Invasion is imminent. In Kyiv, the message is: Please don’t panic. A divergence in public statements on Russia’s intentions appears to be less of a rift, and more of a calculated strategy. Read more by Mike Eckel here.
Ukraine Sees Russian Hand In Spate Of Bomb Scares At Schools Nationwide
Since the New Year, there have been more than 300 incidents of false bomb threats targeting schools and kindergartens across Ukraine. The authorities assert that Russian secret services are conducting a “special operation” aimed at disrupting society and sowing panic. Read the story by Nina Bakhmach here.
More U.S. Military Weapons Arrive In Kyiv
Ukraine has received a new shipment of military aid from the United States, including Javelin anti-tank missiles and launchers. Speaking on the tarmac of the Boryspil International Airport near Kyiv on January 25, acting U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine Kristina Kvien said that “losses to Russia will be heavy” if President Vladimir Putin decides to invade Ukraine.
Who Is The Man Britain Says Is A Kremlin Candidate To Take The Reins In Ukraine?
In his own words: Here’s what Yevhen Murayev, the politician Britain called a “potential candidate” when it claimed Moscow “is looking to install a pro-Russian leader in Kyiv,” has said about Ukraine, Russia, and the West. Read the story by Maryan Kushnir here.
Russian Naval Assault Could Mean ‘Total Disaster’ For Ukraine’s Economy
If Moscow goes ahead with an invasion of Ukraine, Russian naval ships and marines could launch amphibious assaults to cut the country off from the Black Sea. Security analyst Mykhaylo Samus says blocking maritime trade would be a “total disaster” for Ukraine’s economy, leaving it essentially landlocked.
‘Tired Of Waiting’: Ukraine Photojournalists Describe Mood On The Front Lines
Two of Ukraine’s most experienced combat photojournalists spoke to RFE/RL about the atmosphere along the line of contact in the Donbas as fears for an all-out Russian invasion mount. Read the photo story by Amos Chapple here.
Americans Out: Ukrainians Confront Mixed Messaging
For many Ukrainians, war is merely something that’s been ongoing for the past nearly eight years. The evacuation order issued by the U.S. Embassy and other Western countries has made more Ukrainians sit up and take notice about the possibility of a new Russian invasion. Read the story by Mike Eckel in Kyiv here.
Could Ukraine Survive A Russian Onslaught?
By all accounts, Ukraine’s armed forces are qualitatively better than they were seven years ago, when the military’s sorry shape, battered by years of neglect, underfunding, and corruption, was on display against Russia-backed fighters in the Donbas.
“Our army has been systematically destroyed and disarmed, and its best personnel dismissed,” Deputy Defense Minister Petro Mehed told reporters in April 2014. But since that time, the Ukrainian military has improved, though experts disagree how broad and deep the improvements are, and how much is possible when a country is still technically at war.
Read more of our story by Mike Eckel here.
What Are The Ukrainian Military’s Strengths?
In the event of an invasion, Ukraine’s military would be greatly outnumbered, and some Western experts believe Kyiv’s forces could be quickly overwhelmed. But Ukrainian analysts point to some resources that make Ukraine a stronger power than it might appear.
Want To Know More About The Big Picture?
Satellite photos taken on January 19 show a massive Russian military buildup and drills taking place near Ukraine’s border. See the gallery here.
Did the West really promise Moscow that NATO would not expand? Well, it’s complicated. Read Mike Eckel’s story here.
What is SWIFT and what happens if Russia is cut off from it? Is it the “nuclear option” some claim it to be? Read the story by Todd Prince here.
Are Ukraine’s bomb shelters ready for war? In one bunker, the telephones were not working, while another had been taken over by a tattoo parlor. Watch the video by Borys Sachalko, Current Time, and Ray Furlong here.
Copyright (c) 2015. RFE/RL, Inc. Reprinted with the permission of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, 1201 Connecticut Ave NW, Ste 400, Washington DC 20036.