Global Temperatures Set to Break Record, Pushing Millions Beyond ‘Human Climate Niche’
New York City – New data indicates that 2023 is on track to become the hottest year recorded, significantly impacting the “human climate niche,” the temperature range critical for sustaining human life and activities. Over 600 million people are already living outside this optimal climate range due to escalating global temperatures, and this figure is projected to rise dramatically if current warming trends continue.
According to World Economic Forum, the “human climate niche” has traditionally ranged between 11-15°C, a span conducive to human flourishing over thousands of years. However, the ongoing climate crisis has already forced more than 600 million individuals beyond these limits, and this number could escalate to a third of the global population if temperatures reach 2.7°C above pre-industrial levels.
The report, titled “Quantifying the Human Cost of Global Warming,” reveals that about 9% of the global population currently resides in areas outside this climatic range. Although technological advancements like air conditioning, heaters, and insulation have enabled adaptation to extreme temperatures, living beyond these ranges poses serious health risks, including increased morbidity, mortality, and displacement. The report also highlights the heightened risk of infectious disease spread and reduced productivity linked to high temperatures.
Countries like India and Nigeria are particularly vulnerable to climate-induced temperature increases. Both nations have already experienced extreme heat conditions, with India’s recent heatwave causing numerous fatalities and African countries struggling to cope with rising temperatures with limited resources.
The report stresses the urgency of reducing emissions to prevent a surge in exposure to extreme heat, defined as areas with a mean annual temperature of 29°C or higher. Such increases in temperature could transform habitable regions into lifeless deserts, compelling mass migrations. In 2022, weather-related events like floods, droughts, and storms displaced over 32 million people, a trend that is likely to accelerate without effective climate crisis mitigation.
The World Bank predicts significant numbers of internal climate migrants by 2050, with the highest figures in regions like sub-Saharan Africa and East Asia. In response to these alarming trends, UN Secretary-General António Guterres has called for accelerated global action to achieve net-zero targets by 2050, declaring that “the era of global boiling has arrived.”
To combat this crisis, the World Economic Forum’s white paper on Climate Governance and the Circular Economy underscores the need for global collaboration in increasing adaptation efforts and achieving significant reductions in emissions. This includes tripling renewable energy capacity and doubling energy efficiency measures by the end of 2023, a target set for the upcoming COP28 in the United Arab Emirates.
The report concludes that every 0.3°C reduction in end-of-century warming could decrease the number of people living outside the human climate niche by 350 million, emphasizing the critical need for strengthened climate policies and international cooperation.