ACAPS Thematic Report: Northern Ethiopia: two years into the crisis (03 November 2022)

Since the conflict broke out in November 2020 in Tigray region between the Ethiopian National Defence Forces (ENDF) and Tigrayan forces, the humanitarian situation in northern Ethiopia has deteriorated and become dire. The escalation of conflict after 24 August 2022 has likely worsened humanitarian needs in Tigray and along its border areas.
On 2 November 2022, Tigrayan forces and the Federal Government agreed on a “permanent cessation of hostilities” after talks led by the African Union in South Africa. The joint agreement mentions the restoration of basic services and infrastructure and “collaboration with humanitarian agencies” (BBC 02/11/2022;
Bloomberg 02/11/2022).

KEY MESSAGES

Food insecurity levels have drastically increased in northern Ethiopia since November 2020. An estimated 13 million people need food assistance across northern Ethiopia, although the actual scale and severity of needs are unclear (WFP 17/06/2022 and 24/08/2022). Conflict is a key driver of food insecurity in the area, interrupting agricultural activities, preventing the distribution of food and agricultural inputs, and disrupting markets and supply chains (WFP 28/01/2022 and 18/08/2022).

There are indications that people’s coping mechanisms have eroded throughout the two years of conflict. Their needs have significantly deepened, increasing their reliance on life-saving humanitarian assistance (WFP 18/08/2022). The use of negative coping strategies, such as survival sex and begging, has increased, particularly in response to the lack of food (BBC 03/04/2022; IRC 03/05/2021; UNFPA 07/07/2022).

Access to essential services has worsened in the past two years. The conflict has led to the destruction, damage, and looting of critical infrastructure, including hospitals and schools (TNH 26/04/2022; HRW 28/05/2021). Resource and access constraints and the conflict have limited any rehabilitation work (OCHA 01/11/2022).

The access of humanitarian organisations to people in need has varied over the course of the conflict.
The significant deterioration of the situation after 24 August 2022 restricted access within and into Tigray, jeopardising the limited access resulting from the ‘humanitarian truce’ between March–August (OCHA 13/09/2022).

Millions of people have been displaced across northern Ethiopia. The displacement dynamics across northern Ethiopia have been fluid, with significant return movements observed in early 2022 (IOM 15/04/2022). After the re-escalation of conflict in August, renewed large-scale displacement was reported in Tigray and its border areas with Afar and Amhara. Many people have likely been displaced multiple times over the past two years (Protection Cluster 28/10/2022; UNICEF 29/10/2022; OCHA 17/10/2022).

Civilians’ safety and security have been threatened throughout the conflict. This is particularly the case during phases of increased fighting and air strikes (Reuters 05/10/2022; UN News 18/10/2022; ICG 20/10/2022;
AP News 29/10/2022). All parties to the conflict have been accused of committing human rights violations, including ethnically motivated killings and the use of sexual violence as a weapon of war (EHRC 08/07/2022;
OHCHR 22/09/2022; HRW/Amnesty International 06/05/2022; Amnesty International 16/02/2022).

Information has been limited, restricted, and politicised throughout the past two years. This has resulted in an overall lack of information, a lack of reliable figures, and little disaggregated information about people’s needs (Maxwell, Baker, et al. 05/2020; TNH 10/11/2021). This lack has reduced the ability of responders to target people adequately (Reuters 26/10/2021; CSIS 30/09/2022).

Source: ACAPS