Ethiopia National Displacement Report 14 – Site Assessment Round 31 & Village Assessment Survey Round 14: August – September 2022

Ethiopia faces significant internal displacement. In 2018, Ethiopia recorded the third highest number of new displacements worldwide, with 3,191,000 internally displaced persons (IDPs) identified.¹ A significant portion of these displacements are conflict-induced, largely related to ethnic and border-based disputes. Old tensions such as the contestation of the Oromia-Somali regional border which first flared up in 2017 continue to persist, while new conflicts have also emerged. Conflict broke out in 2016 over the administrative designation of then Konso woreda in SNNP region; in 2018 Konso was formally recognized as a zone, but in the years since conflict has only continued. In April and later in June 2018, conflict which was aggravated by competition for land and resources broke out between Gedeo and Guji Oromo tribes in West Guji. It is estimated that by August 2018, 748,499 IDPs were displaced from the GedeoWest Guji conflict alone.² In September 2020 frequent attacks from unidentified armed groups (UAGs) on the border of Benishangul Gumz region led to increasing displacement to Awi zone in Amhara region. This continued to intensify and in January 2021 displacement reached a peak of 76,000 at its height.3

In early November 2020, the regional party of Tigray allegedly attacked the Northern Command of Ethiopia’s National Defense Force in Mekelle, Tigray region, prompting a military offensive from the federal government of Ethiopia.

Following this, conflict broke out in the North of Ethiopia resulting in significant displacement. After a change of administration in Tigray region at the end of June 2021, the conflict moved further south into Afar and Amhara regions but began to subside around January 2022. In August 2022, the conflict resumed for a period though remained largely contained in Tigray region. On 2 November 2022, the regional party of Tigray and the federal government of Ethiopia signed an agreement on a permanent cessation of hostilities.4

In mid-April 2021, conflict broke out in Ataye City Administration in North Shewa zone of Amhara region and the surrounding areas, which led to mass displacement in the zone. Estimated displacement following the conflict, according to government sources, reached 310,000 IDPs at its peak. This brought displacement in Ethiopia to 4.5 million IDPs as of February 2022.

Climate-induced displacement has become increasingly prominent in Ethiopia. Beginning in 2015, Ethiopia faced one of the strongest onsets of El Niño, a periodic heating of the eastern tropical Pacific, which reduced the kiremt rainfall5 and successively resulted in drought in the Southern and Southeastern parts of the country. Somali region is particularly prone to climate induced displacement, having endured two underperforming rainy seasons in 2021 which caused a shortage of pastureland, water and food for pastoralists and their livestock. The performance of the March – June 2022 Gu rainfall in parts of central and north-central Ethiopia was below average, and among the lowest amounts recorded in the past 70 years.7 The cyclic nature of drought conditions in Ethiopia has contributed to a dearth of water resources, deepening food insecurity in the country and in the wider East and Horn of Africa region. In southern Tigray and the eastern part of Oromia regions rainfall predicted in February 2022 was delayed by about a month, creating unfavourable crop conditions and reducing harvests.8 As of September 2022, drought was the primary cause of displacement for 516,269 IDPs (18.9%), with IDPs concentrated in Somali, Oromia and Afar regions. Floods are another major cause of climate-induced displacement, particularly in low laying areas.

While Ethiopia continues to cope with the lasting impact of the damage from the overflowing of the Shabelle, Ganale, and Dawa rivers in 2020 which damaged crops, flooding and landslide incidents have been on the rise in six regions affecting nearly 1.1m people according to the Ethiopian Disaster Risk Management Commission (EDRMC).9

Adding to the high mobility landscape of Ethiopia is the number and rate of returns. Following the reduction in conflict in January 2022 in many parts of Afar and Amhara regions affected by the Northern Ethiopia Crisis, returns have begun which can be seen in the +422% increase in returns in Afar region and +584% increase in Amhara region in January and February 2022.10 Throughout June and July 2022 both spontaneous and government-led returns continued which led to a growing rate of returning IDPs in Afar (+12%) and Amhara (+16%) regions.

In March 2020, the Ministry of Health confirmed the first COVID-19 case in Ethiopia. Since then, the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases has increased to 493,498 cases as of 23 September 2022.11 The spread of COVID-19 and regulations to curb it has caused unemployment and has exacerbated the food insecurity situation in the country.

Source: International Organization for Migration