Day: May 27, 2021

Odds are increasing that the annual average global temperature will rise beyond 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, in at least one of the next five years, the UN weather agency warns in a new report issued on Thursday.

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) said there was a 40% chance of the watershed global warming mark being met during the time frame, and these odds are increasing with time.

The 1.5°C mark was established as the desirable target for all the countries of the world who signed up to the Paris Agreement to limit temperature rises, in order to prevent permanent changes that threaten the wellbeing of all life on earth. The agreement calls for limiting rises to 2°C or below.

There is a 90% likelihood of at least one year between 2021-2025 becoming the warmest on record, which would dislodge 2016 from the top ranking, according to the Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update, produced by the United Kingdom’s Met Office, the WMO lead centre for such predictions.

More rain, cyclones
Up to the end of 2025, high-latitude regions and the Sahel are likely to be wetter, the report suggests, and there is an increased chance of more tropical cyclones in the Atlantic compared to the average, taken from the start of the 1980s.

The annual update harnesses the expertise of internationally acclaimed climate scientists and the best prediction systems from leading climate centres around the world to produce actionable information.

“These are more than just statistics”, said WMO Secretary-General Petteri Taalas. “Increasing temperatures mean more melting ice, higher sea levels, more heatwaves and other extreme weather, and greater impacts on food security, health, the environment and sustainable development,” he said.

‘Yet another wake-up call’
“This study shows – with a high level of scientific skill – that we are getting measurably and inexorably closer to the lower target of the Paris Agreement on Climate Change.

“It is yet another wakeup call that the world needs to fast-track commitments to slash greenhouse gas emissions and achieve carbon neutrality”, said Professor Taalas. “Technological advances now make it possible to track greenhouse gas emissions back to their sources as a means of precisely targeting reduction efforts”, he noted.

Climate adaption
He said the report also underlines the need for climate adaptation. “Only half of 193 WMO Members have state of the art early warning services. Countries should continue to develop the services that will be needed to support adaptation in climate-sensitive sectors – such as health, water, agriculture and renewable energy – and promote early warning systems that reduce the adverse impacts of extreme events” he said.

“Besides limitations in early warning services we are having severe gaps in weather observations especially in Africa and island states. This has a major negative impact on the accuracy if the early warnings in those areas and globally. We need to invest in the basic networks as well.” he concluded.

Temperatures rising
In 2020 – one of the three warmest years on record – the global average temperature was 1.2 °C above the pre-industrial baseline, according to the WMO’s report on the State of the Global Climate 2020, released in April. It highlighted the acceleration in climate change indicators like rising sea levels, melting sea ice, and extreme weather, as well as worsening impacts on socio-economic development.

And Thursday’s update confirms that trend. In the coming five years, the annual mean global temperature is likely to be at least 1°C warmer – within the range 0.9°C – 1.8°C – than preindustrial levels.

The chance of temporarily reaching 1.5°C has roughly doubled compared to last year’s predictions, said WMO. This is mainly due to using an improved temperature dataset to estimate the baseline rather than sudden changes in climate indicators.

This current year and the crucial climate change negotiations, COP26, in November, have been widely described as a “make-or-break” chance to prevent climate change spiralling ever more out of control, noted WMO. Tackling climate change is high on the agenda of the G7 leaders summit, due to be hosted by the UK from 11-13 June.

Source: UN News Centre

Highlights
• The ongoing Gu’ rains have significantly reduced with many parts of Somalia receiving below average cumulative amounts; latest forecasts indicate that the continuation of the rains through June is uncertain.
• Findings from the inter-agency assessment in Jowhar, Middle Shebelle, indicate 11,000 households in 27 villages (66,000 people) displaced. The floods were triggered by river breakages at Moyko and Baarey in Jowhar and Shiidlabari in Mahaday district.
• Accessibility of air transport to various parts of the country, including Belet Weyne, Jalalaqsi and Afmadow, has improved following a reduction in rains.
Situation overview
The ongoing Gu’ rains have significantly reduced with many parts of Somalia receiving below average cumulative amounts over the last week. The latest forecast indicates that the continuation of these rains from late May through June is uncertain1. However, the rains received triggered flash floods in some areas and will affect food security and livelihoods, with the 2021 Gu’ season cereal production expected to be 20-40% below average. Humanitarian partners estimate that at least 166,000 people have been affected by flooding since the beginning of the Gu’ season.
Flash flooding was particularly felt in Jowhar and Belet Weyne districts. An inter-agency assessment completed on 17 May found that in Mahaday and Jowhar, Middle Shebelle, floods triggered by river breakages at Moyko and Baarey in Jowhar district and Shiidlabari in Mahaday district, affecting 11,000 households in 27 villages (66,000 people; of whom 30 per cent were women, 28 per cent children, seven people living with disability, 12 per cent elderly and 23 men). The floods also destroyed over 40,000 hectares of farmland, disrupted learning in 11 schools, and damaged 82 per cent of all WASH infrastructures in the assessed villages including over 62 shallow wells, and 1,646 latrines.
Despite the reported decrease of rainfall in the third week of May along the Shabelle river valley both in the upper stream areas of Ethiopia and in Somalia, flood ing in the lower reaches in Middle Shabelle particularly in Jowhar continues to affect livelihoods, causing disruption of transport and displacement. River-levels in Jowhar are 4.20 meters high which is 1.05 meters below high-risk level of 5.25 meters high as of 20 May. Some reports indicate that families living within Afgoye town flood prone sections have started moving to higher ground areas. The river breakage in Baarey has affected transportation of food supplies pushing up prices of key commodities. Although there is no shortage of basic food supplies in Jowhar, there is a slight increase of between $0.10 to $0.25 in retail prices of some commodities in the main markets. On 18 May, a delegation led by Hirshabelle President, Ali Abdullahi Hussein visited the Baarey breakage points to assess the situation of flood-displaced people living under trees on elevated land and delivering food and medical assistance. The president urged partners to provide assistance in coordination with the inter-ministerial flood committee that was recently established. OCHA will coordinate delivery of assistance with the committee.
Meanwhile, in Lower Shabelle, despite reported decrease of rainfall over the last week any significant rainfall and increased downstream flow of the river from the Ethiopian highland may cause river breakages in Anole, Sabiid and Aytiri in Afgooye district, as has been the case in previous years. Additional districts such as Wanla Weyn, Marka and Qoryooley may also be affected. Any eventuality would affect crop output and livelihoods, cause disruption of transport and increase displacements. About 10,000 people living in these villages may be affected should there be river breakages. Any significant increase of rainfall in the area as well as the eastern Ethiopian highlands may intensify the downstream flow of the Shabelle river.
In Jubaland, during the last 2 weeks of May, the Juba river levels fluctuated with last week seeing a sharp reduction in flooding, according to Somalia Water and Land Information systems (SWALIM). The levels are currently slightly above normal. However, given the rainfall forecast in the Ethiopian highlands, and the reducing trend of river levels in upper parts of the river, the moderate risk of flooding changed to minimal level in the entire channel.
As of 3rd week of May, most parts of Puntland especially parts of Bari, Nugaal, Mudug and the disputed areas of Sool, Sanaag and Cey (Buhoodle) are reportedly receiving some rains. However, coastal Deeh and Addun livelihood zones and some parts of the inland pastoral have received little to no rains so far. According to the Humanitarian Affairs and Disaster Management Agency (HADMA), the rains received were light to moderate but poorly distributed and erratic. Although delayed, the rains offered much needed relief to many rural communities facing stress in terms of access to water and pasture for animals. According to FSNAU reports, the rainfall conditions started to improve in late April with most parts of Puntland receiving varying amounts and intensities of rainfall. The rains further intensified the week between 28 of April and 5 May causing deaths, damage and destruction of livelihood assets and economic infrastructures in some areas following flash flooding. According to HADMA, a total of four people and over 200 heads of livestock were killed by flash floods. HADMA reported an unknown number of makeshift shelters for some rural nomadic communities being damaged especially in parts of Bari and Sanaag. Flash floods seriously damaged two bridges along Bossaso – Garowe main road leading to a temporary disruption of the flow of goods and people within parts of Puntland and surrounding areas.
In Galmudug, light to moderate amounts of rain were received across all the districts of Gaalkacyo, Hobyo, Cabuwaaq, Cadaaado, Dhuusamarreeb with rainfall distribution pattern limited but even across the state. While the rains temporarily relieved most of the drought affected villages from the burden of water trucking, the cessation of the rains over the last two weeks triggered renewed drought in some area. Local sources reported poor rainfall distribution along coastal Deex region of Hobyo district including Qaranro, Labad, Kherqabe, Xindawaco and Ceelducal rural villages. An estimated 400 rural households have been displaced from affected villages over last week and arrived at Xajubsufi and Indhaqaris looking for pasture and water. A verification exercise confirmed that the IDP population in south Gaalkacyo increased from 55,000 in 2020 to 66,543 in March 2021 due to displacement triggered by the persistent drought conditions and armed conflict. Sources in the community informed that more IDPs from Baadweyne are likely to soon join them due to an increasingly tense security situation wherein the protracted armed conflict between Government forces and non-state armed actors (Al Shabab) in Baadweyne town, has resulted in civilian casualties and displacement of at least 1276 households, mainly women and children, since the beginning of the year.
Transport constraints have has eased in various parts of the country following the decrease in rains. According to the Logistics Cluster, the Belet Weyne airstrip which was closed due to flooding has since dried up and is accessible again for fixed wing assets. The Jalalaqsi airstrip which was also affected has dried up but is yet to re-open. The Jowhar corridor is still flooded but Afmadow airstrip may be accessible.
There have been reports of an increase in Acute Watery Diarrhea/Cholera cases in various flood affected regions. In Lower Shabelle, a total of 87 cases have been recorded in Qoryooley, Afgooye and Marka regions. In Jubaland, a total of 176 AWD admissions with one associated death has been recorded. According to partners, consumption of unsafe water, inadequate awareness of AWD prevention in the community, the inaccessibility to clean water by host communities and IDPs and poor hygiene and sanitation practices are key causes.
Separately, there are concerns of another surge of Desert Locusts, particularly in northern parts of the country due to favorable conditions following the Gu’ rains in the area. The spread of existing and newly formed swarms is likely to cause significant losses to crop and pasture availability which have already been adversely impacted by drought conditions, thereby exacerbating food insecurity in high risks areas of Somaliland, Puntland and parts of South West State.

Source: UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs

With over 20% of the world’s trade in goods in 2018, the intra-regional market of the UfM continues to be one of the most relevant global markets today, and yet, the region is one of least economically integrated worldwide. For this reason, the UfM commissioned the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development(OECD), to prepare the first edition of the UfM Progress Report on Regional Integration. The Report, presented online today, provides key findings and policy recommendations in five domains: trade, finance, infrastructure, movement of people, and research and higher education, along with specific performance indicators that can be used to monitor trends and progress over time.
Integration has progressed unevenly, across and within sub-regions of the UfM, in all policy domains. In terms of trade, for instance, the European Union is responsible for 94% of the region’s merchandise exports. While 70% of all cargo traffic in the Mediterranean is between European ports, with 15% between Europe and North Africa, and only 5% is between MENA countries.
Two important challenges to regional integration are highlighted: the inadequate infrastructure for transport and energy connectivity, and the lack of common vision on human mobility as a driver of innovation and growth in the region. The MENA region will require investment of over 7% of its annual regional GDP in maintenance and creation of infrastructure. There are several sub-regional initiatives to interconnect electricity networks and allow for electricity trade. This is crucial since, concentrated solar power plants could generate 100 times the combined electricity consumption of MENA and Europe.
UfM Secretary General Nasser Kamel said: “Regional integration has always been at the heart of the UfM’s work, and this report is a step forward in recognising the progress that has been made and the work still to be done. The tight grip the virus has held on our movement and on the economy, modifying global production and commerce, and accelerating the digital transformation, has given us food for thought. As we recover, we must leverage the opportunity to create new inclusive societies that ensure young people and women can fulfil their potential, driven by our ambition for sustainable economies.”
OECD Secretary General Angel Gurría commented: “This report focuses on one of the main challenges of both history and geography, which is how to make the most out of the diversity and the complementarities that exist among neighbouring regions and countries. We firmly believe that higher levels of integration will result in more opportunities and greater welfare for people if done correctly, and this report puts forward a set of policy recommendations to help countries strengthen the timing, sequencing, and impact of their reform agendas to promote a more inclusive integration and greater opportunities.”
The launch event brought together representatives of different regional integration processes, as well as regional and international organisations and IFIs including the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), the African Development Bank (AfDB), Agadir Agreement, the United Nations Office for South-South Cooperation (UNOSSC), among others, to share their respective experiences in promoting regional integration. They showcased best practices and success stories that can inspire the UfM region and that can be adapted and replicated in the Euro-Mediterranean context.
The Progress Report was prepared with the financial support of the Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit GmbH (GIZ) on behalf of the Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development of Germany (BMZ).

Source: National News Agency

Highlights

Over 75,000 persons (15,189 households) have reportedly fled their homes following clashes between Hutu and Tembo militias in Mubungu. Kalehe Territory, South Kivu Province.

822 Burundians refugees and 221 Rwandan refugees have been voluntarily repatriated to their countries of origin from North Kivu.

Two new sites were granted by the provincial authorities in Masisi territory (North Kivu) in April 2021 to accommodate thousands of families who have been displaced from Ituri province in recent months.

From 26 April to 3 May 2021, the Director of UNHCR Regional Bureau for Southern Africa visited the Aru Sub office in order to assess the achievements of UNHCR DRC and partners in support of South Sudanese refugees and host communities.

Source: UN High Commissioner for Refugees

Summary
The recent violent end of the ceasefire in Western Sahara means the EU and the UN should pay renewed attention to resolving the longstanding conflict between the native Sahrawis and Morocco.
Various peace-making efforts over the years have led the Sahrawis’ representative organisation, Polisario, to make concessions to Morocco. However, Morocco remains insistent on an autonomy option for the Sahrawis – not independence.
The UN should pursue a “free association” option for Western Sahara – a third way that offers a realistic means of fulfilling Sahrawi self-determination.
France, along with the US, should encourage this by removing their diplomatic protection for Morocco both within the EU and at the UN.
Correctly aligning the EU’s political and trade relations will be vital to bringing this conflict to a close. It is in EU member states’ interest to ensure a stable southern neighbourhood.
Introduction
This year marks the thirtieth anniversary of the creation of the UN Mission for the Referendum in Western Sahara (MINURSO). The mission was originally tasked with laying the groundwork for Sahrawi self-determination while monitoring a ceasefire between Morocco and Polisario – the Western Sahara national liberation movement. In setting up the mission, the United Nations promised to end the long-running conflict in what remains Africa’s only territory still awaiting decolonisation. Yet, three decades later, the UN has little to show.
Self-determination for the Sahrawi people appears more remote than when MINURSO was first launched in 1991. Meanwhile, the ceasefire is unravelling after the resumption of armed attacks by Polisario against Moroccan forces, stemming in large part from the absence of a viable peace process and the strengthening of Morocco’s hold over the territory. Diplomatic inaction has been compounded by the lack of a UN personal envoy, two years since the most recent appointee resigned in May 2019.
The UN Security Council and its permanent members, which have shepherded peace talks since the 1990s, hold much responsibility for this state of affairs. Under their watch, self-determination and decolonisation were replaced with a peace process that has given Morocco veto power over how the Sahrawi people fulfil their internationally recognised rights.
Stuck on the sidelines has been the European Union. The actions of two of its members, France and Spain, have helped keep the conflict rumbling on. Yet, as a bloc, the EU has maintained its distance from peace talks despite the implications that Western Sahara’s future will have for north-west Africa, whose stability and prosperity is a key European interest. To the extent that it has been involved in Western Sahara – through its trade relations with Morocco – the EU has actually harmed prospects for resolving the conflict. Europe is far from an uninvolved observer; indeed, it is directly implicated in the conflict. Bearing testament to this is Morocco’s recent decision to allow thousands of migrants to make for the Spanish North African town of Ceuta in response to Spain’s hosting of Polisario leader, Brahim Ghali, for medical treatment and (in Rabat’s eyes) because of Spain’s insufficient support for Moroccan positions on Western Sahara. This summer’s anticipated decision by the Court of Justice of the European Union (CJEU) to invalidate the EU’s inclusion of Western Sahara in its trade and fishery agreements with Morocco is yet another sign of how implicated the bloc is in the unfolding conflict.
International neglect is having an adverse impact on the calculations of both main parties, demonstrating to Morocco that the UN Security Council has acquiesced to its continued control over Western Sahara. Moreover, in his final weeks as US president, Donald Trump recognised Moroccan sovereignty over Western Sahara – in contravention of international law. Receding prospects for a negotiated solution will convince the Western Sahara national liberation movement that diplomacy and international law have failed it, and that an intensification of armed confrontation with Morocco is the only way forward.
Drawing on interviews with serving and former officials, and with leading experts and academics, this paper argues that, at this critical juncture, European governments – including those with a seat on the UN Security Council – must urgently relaunch a viable UN-led peace process. In doing so, they should avoid repeating the mistakes of old. They must put their full weight behind the appointment of a UN personal envoy tasked with formulating a new plan for Sahrawi self-determination. This plan should set out a third way for Western Sahara – between full independence and formal integration into the territory of the Kingdom of Morocco – based on the concept of “free association” in which Polisario, as the representative of the Sahrawi people, delegates powers both to Morocco and to a newly created state of Western Sahara. A UN-backed process cannot succeed without the active political support of European governments. How they align their political and trade policies will greatly influence the prospects for resolving the Western Sahara conflict and the future of the region.

Source: European Council on Foreign Relations