Seasonal precipitation predictions in Desert Locust winter/spring breeding areas (February – July 2022) (Issued 16 January 2022)

Drier than normal conditions are expected from eastern Yemen to southeastern Iran and southwestern Pakistan, causing below normal rains to fall in spring breeding areas from February to May. There is a general trend of drier to wetter conditions over the next three months for northeast Africa, both sides of the Red Sea, and the western Arabian Peninsula. This transition occurs as La Niña decays. However, the wetter conditions are likely to be short-lived and replaced by unusually dry conditions once again in northeast Africa from May onwards.

Winter breeding areas (February–April)

• Red Sea and Gulf of Aden: much drier than normal (February), slightly wetter than normal in SE Egypt (March), normal to wetter than normal (April)

Spring breeding areas (March–May)

• East Africa: much drier than normal (February), drier than normal in NW Kenya / SW Ethiopia and wetter in NE Kenya (March), widespread wetter than normal (April), normal (May)

• Arabian Peninsula interior: normal to slightly wetter (March), increasing in April, followed by drier than normal in May

• SE Iran / SW Pakistan coast: drier than normal (March–April), slightly wetter than normal (May)

• NW Africa: slightly wetter than normal N Western Sahara and C Algeria (March–April), drier than normal in C Algeria (May)

Summer breeding areas (June–July)

• Sahel of W Africa to Eritrea: wetter than normal in June (E Chad, Sudan) then wetter than normal throughout Sahel in July

• Indo-Pakistan: initially wet in June followed by normal in July

Source: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations