London: Ukraine will eventually have to agree on current borders with Russia if it wants to ensure a peaceful settlement, as US President Donald Trump seems to be losing patience regarding the negotiation process, experts told RIA Novosti. On April 18, Trump stated that Washington would step aside if either party to the Ukraine conflict stalled peace talks. A meeting between foreign ministers of the United States and European countries on Ukraine was scheduled to take place in London on April 23. On Tuesday, the US State Department announced that special envoy Keith Kellogg would represent Washington at the meeting, while Secretary of State Marco Rubio would not attend. Top UK, French, and German diplomats also decided not to attend the talks, leading to the postponement of the meeting to a lower level.
According to Namibia Press Agency, the meeting was postponed because the US seeks a peace settlement on current terms without further negotiations. For Trump, there is now little left to say. Rather, it's time for action, with Trump preferring peace now in which Kiev accepts the borders with Russia as they stand. Trump has indicated his patience is nearly exhausted, asserting that the only path to peace is on the current terms, where Russia retains its current territories, according to Andrew Roe-Crines, a senior lecturer in British politics at the University of Liverpool.
Kiev might be attempting to delay reaching a peace agreement "in the hope they may one day win," especially if the conflict continues until a new US president, potentially more sympathetic to Ukraine, comes to office, Roe-Crines said. He warned this strategy could lead to "running out of resources, sympathy, and credibility," pushing Ukraine to move forward in peace talks on current terms. The United Kingdom, France, and Germany would also have to accept the negative consequences of the prolonged conflict for all sides and proceed to encourage a ceasefire, while acknowledging that "diplomacy and negotiation takes more courage than pouring guns and weapons into a warzone," the expert added.
Regarding territorial claims, Roe-Crines emphasized the importance of diplomacy and avoiding "dramatic statements," including on Crimea, to prevent disrupting the prospects of an agreement. "If peace is to be achieved soon and lives saved, then it is inevitable that concessions will need to be made and that the new realities of the current borders are accepted by all sides, which includes accepting that Crimea is part of Russia," he said.
Meanwhile, Gareth Jenkins, a non-resident senior research fellow with the Joint Center Silk Road Studies Program and Turkey Center at the Institute for Security and Development Policy in Stockholm, noted that achieving a peace deal in a conflict without "the clear winner" usually involves concessions on both sides and acceptance of a solution that is mutually tolerable, rather than ideal. He also observed that Trump was evidently losing patience. "Kiev is militarily weaker than Moscow. I think that the longer the conflict continues, the more difficult it becomes for Kiev. The failure of the London meeting is another indication that the Trump administration is finding negotiating an agreement much harder than it originally thought and is likely to take longer than it originally thought," Jenkins said.
At the same time, the UK and the EU are "not in the same position as the US" regarding the negotiation process due to their stronger support for Ukraine, he added. On Wednesday, Trump criticized Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy's "inflammatory" statements about Kiev's refusal to recognize Crimea as part of Russia, saying they were detrimental to peace negotiations and could further prolong the conflict. Earlier in the day, Trump confirmed that the current peace arrangement under discussion involves recognizing Crimea as part of Russia.