Beijing: China offset a $113.54 billion trade drop with the United States from the 2018 trade war by leveraging ASEAN’s export surge, but President Donald Trump’s new tariffs, reaching up to 49% on ASEAN nations, have now cut off that buffer.
According to Namibia Press Agency, China’s exports to the United States fell from $543.29 billion in 2018 to $429.75 billion in 2024, representing a $113.54 billion decline as tariffs from the trade war impacted Beijing’s market share. The ASEAN bloc, however, stepped in to mitigate the impact, with exports to the US increasing from $187.36 billion to $355.57 billion over the same period. This $168.21 billion gain was driven by significant increases in exports from Vietnam, Cambodia, and Laos.
This shift in trade was largely due to manufacturers rerouting Chinese goods through ASEAN’s tariff-free hub, allowing China to offset its losses by indirectly channeling products to the US. However, the implementation of Trump’s new tariffs, effective April 9, complicates this workaround. The tariffs include steep rates of 46% on Vietnam, 49% on Cambodia, and 48% on Laos, threatening to reverse the recent export boom experienced by these regions.
Vietnam’s exports to the United States surged by 177%, from $51.07 billion in 2018 to $141.41 billion in 2024. This increase was primarily in machinery and electronics, with significant gains in factory robots, washing machines, smartphones, and wiring. Much of this growth is attributed to Chinese firms diverting trade, labeling goods as “Made in Vietnam” with minimal investments in the country. However, the new tariffs threaten to end Vietnam’s windfall, which has offset China’s $74.94 billion drop in these categories.
Similarly, Cambodia’s exports to the US rose by 232%, from $3.84 billion in 2018 to $12.74 billion in 2024, largely driven by solar panel exports. Chinese firms, seeking to avoid US tariffs, turned Cambodia into a solar hub, with solar cell exports reaching $1.28 billion in 2024. Trump’s tariffs now jeopardize this solar boom, as well as Cambodia’s broader surge in machinery and electronics exports.
Laos also experienced a significant increase in exports to the US, growing by 467% from $142.63 million in 2018 to $808.88 million in 2024, led by a solar panel boom. Other exports, including bedding, hats, and spectacles, also contributed to this growth. However, the new tariffs threaten to dismantle Laos’ gains, as Chinese firms may be forced to scale back or exit.
China’s strategy to avoid US tariffs by rerouting exports through ASEAN nations is now in jeopardy, as Trump’s sweeping tariffs close these backdoors. With few alternatives, China’s manufacturers are running out of options. Meanwhile, China’s retaliatory tariffs on US goods, effective April 10, offer limited impact given the lower volume of US exports to China compared to China’s exports to the US.