In the summer breeding areas of the Horn of Africa, wetter than normal conditions are expected from mid-July to September in northeast Ethiopia (Afar region) where rains are predicted to start during the third week that should provide sufficient moisture for breeding by any swarms coming from eastern Ethiopia and northern Somalia. During the last quarter of the year, below-normal rains and dry conditions are expected in the Horn of Africa. In southwest Asia, the probability of above-normal rains in the summer breeding areas along both sides of the Indo-Pakistan border is likely to rise towards the end of the monsoon season (September and October) in response to a negative Indian Ocean Dipole. In the northern Sahel of West Africa and Sudan, slightly above-normal rains are expected at times throughout the summer. In Yemen, above-average rains are expected in the interior breeding areas from July to September.
Summer breeding areas (June–October)
• Horn of Africa: wetter than normal July–September (Afar, Ethiopia); normal to drier than normal July–November (Somalia)
• W Africa / Sudan: slightly wetter than normal (July–September), continuing in Chad and Sudan (October)
• Yemen: slightly wetter than normal (July–September) in the interior
• Indo–Pakistan: normal (July–August) and slightly wetter than normal (September–October)
Winter breeding areas (November–December)
• Red Sea: drier than normal
Source: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations