NYERI, Kenya – John Muiruri, the Nyeri County Director of Meteorological Services, has issued a warning to farmers against premature planting due to the recent unexpected rains. Despite the heavy downpour experienced across various regions, including Nyeri, over the last two weeks, Muiruri clarified that these showers are not the harbinger of the anticipated long rains season.
According to Kenya News Agency, the current rainfall is short-lived, with expectations of ceasing within the next four days. This advisory comes as the March-May long rainy season approaches, traditionally a critical period for agriculture in the region. “We expect these rains to stop within three to four days from now, after which sunny and hot weather conditions will resume,” Muiruri told the Kenya News Agency. He urges farmers to hold off on planting until the official start of the long rains, expected from mid-March.
The Kenya Meteorological Department (KMD) in its weekly weather forecast, covering February 27 to March 4, predicted rainfall in parts of the country, including the South Rift Valley and the Lake Victoria Basin, among others. However, it also forecasted daytime temperatures exceeding 30 degrees Celsius in several counties, indicating a return to dry and hot weather following the brief wet spell.
Regions such as Nyeri, Laikipia, and Murang’a are expected to continue experiencing cooler night temperatures, less than 10 degrees Celsius. Nyeri County, specifically, will see daytime temperatures ranging between 22 and 30 degrees Celsius, aligning with Muiruri’s predictions of hot weather persisting until the onset of the long rains.
The Intergovernmental Authority on Development’s (IGAD) Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC) has projected that the upcoming long rains will be above average, with a 55 to 65 percent probability. This forecast covers several East African countries, promising a significant shift from recent dry conditions that have strained the region.
ICPAC Director Dr. Guleid Artan highlighted the potential for improved food security with the anticipated rainfall but cautioned against the backdrop of challenges such as historical droughts, regional conflicts, and the aftermath of El Niño-induced floods. The region’s vulnerability to food insecurity remains high, with the risk of flooding during the long rains season possibly exacerbating the situation in localized areas.