Nakuru: Lake Nakuru might double its initial size within the next four years due to unabated flooding, which experts have attributed to a combination of factors. The Executive Director of Flamingo Lakes Conservation Network (Flamingo-NET), Jackson Raini, stated that if urgent environmental conservation and restoration measures are not undertaken in the lake's catchment area, its size is projected to swell and claim 82 square kilometers, a significant increase from the original 43 square kilometers in 2010.
According to Kenya News Agency, Raini was appointed a member of the multi-agency team constituted by the government in 2023, through the National Treasury, the Ministry of Environment, Climate Change and Forestry, and the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) to assess the impacts of rising water levels of Nakuru. The Executive Director indicated that various scientific studies and environmental assessments have established that the lake will not recede soon as climate change is a critical factor, with projections showing its water levels will continue to rise.
Raini, who is also the National Coordinator of the Integrated Lake Basin Management Program and a member of the Nakuru County Environment Committee, noted that in 1991, Lake Nakuru Catchment had a forest cover of 40 percent spanning 40,000 kilometers, but currently, it had been reduced to a mere 7 percent, covering only 1,800 square kilometers. The water body lost 35,000 square kilometers of its forest cover in 2001 when it was cleared for human settlement.
He explained that the cleared catchment played a critical role in preventing flooding by managing water flow, absorbing excess rainfall, and stabilizing soil to reduce surface run-off. Raini emphasized the need for immediate intervention to restore 200 square kilometers of the lake's catchment, stating that tree roots hold the soil together, preventing erosion and silt from entering rivers and lakes.
Kenya's Rift Valley lakes, including Nakuru, Naivasha, Baringo, Ol' Bolossat, and Bogoria, have expanded to levels not seen in 80 years. Raini highlighted the importance of county governments adopting the 'sponge city' concept in urban planning and development to reduce stormwater surface run-offs.
The multi-agency team's report has generated a Cabinet memo to formulate long-term strategies and immediate interventions to address the natural disaster. The report indicated that the lake increased its flood area from 3,268.71 hectares in 2010 to 5,400.27 hectares in 2020, displacing residents of Barut East Ward.
According to Raini, increased rainfall in Kenya's Rift Valley Lakes' catchment zones is a major cause of rising water levels. He noted that mean annual rainfall for 2010-2020 increased by up to 30 percent in the Rift Valley region due to climate change effects.
Environmental Law Advocate, Bernard Kipkoech, stressed the importance of marking riparian boundaries and enforcing buffer zones. Kipkoech advocated for compensating and resettling affected residents, especially those with genuine title deeds, whose land has been submerged.
Julius Mutisya, one of the affected individuals, reported food shortages after farmlands were destroyed by floods. He highlighted the human-wildlife conflicts and exposure to water-borne diseases due to rising lake levels.
Damaris Wairimu, whose land is now a fishing ground, and Onesmus Kihiko, a retired employee, shared their experiences of being displaced by the floods. Kihiko lamented the loss of his investments in the dairy business due to the flooding.
Humphrey Maina, a resident of Mwariki Village for 50 years, noted increased wild animal attacks due to shrinking habitats within Lake Nakuru National Park.