FOOD SECURITY SNAPSHOT
• Above-average cereal production forecast in 2022
• Cereal import requirements forecast above-average level in 2022/23
• Annual food inflation rate slows in 2022, but still at high levels
• Poor food insecurity conditions expected to persist in 2022/23 in southern provinces
Above-average cereal production forecast in 2022
The 2022 main season cereal harvest, mainly coarse grains, concluded in July and, pending official data, total cereal production is expected to be slightly above to the previous five-year average. This reflects generally favourable weather conditions in the main cereal-producing central areas. By contrast, erratic rainfall and high temperatures affected crop yields in southern provinces.
Cereal import requirements forecast above average in 2022/23
In the 2022/23 marketing year (April/March), cereal imports, which on average satisfy about 40 percent of the domestic cereal consumption requirement, are forecast at an above-average level of 1.6 million tonnes. Wheat and rice are produced in very low quantities in the country and represent the largest share of grain imports, equal to 675 000 and 560 000 tonnes, respectively, an increase of 4 percent and 17 percent, respectively, compared to the five-year average.
Annual food inflation rate slows in 2022, but still at high levels
According to the latest data by the Instituto Nacional de Estatística (INE), the headline annual inflation rate was estimated at 21 percent in July 2022, the lowest level since mid-2020. In contrast to neighbouring countries where inflation rates have been generally rising, the country is benefitting from the high global oil prices, given its status as an exporter, and this has supported an appreciation of the national currency, helping to curb import inflationary pressure. Furthermore, the launch of the government’s Strategic Food Reserve Plan in on September 2021, which aims to stabilize domestic food supplies and contain price hikes, has also contributed to alleviating price pressure.
Source: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations