WASHINGTON—School districts across the United States are facing the prospect of closing hundreds of schools due to significant declines in student enrollment and accompanying budget constraints. This trend, exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic, puts educational institutions in a precarious position as they navigate shrinking resources and demographic shifts.
According to Namibia Press Agency, a recent study by the Thomas B. Fordham Institute, a prominent education reform think tank, has identified nearly 500 public schools nationwide that are both chronically underperforming and have seen substantial enrollment decreases since the pandemic’s onset. The study reveals that around 5,100 schools, or nearly one in 12 public schools in the U.S., experienced enrollment reductions of more than 20 percent between the 2019-20 and 2022-23 school years. Schools previously marked as low-performing were over twice as likely to suffer such drastic declines.
The underlying cause of these enrollment drops has been linked to demographic changes, notably a 14 percent decline in birth rates over the past decade as reported by Bellwether Education Partners. This decline has primarily affected elementary and middle schools, with high schools expected to encounter similar issues soon. In California, which has the largest school system in the nation by population, approximately 40 schools are among those at risk of closure due to these trends.
The implications of these closures are severe. In San Francisco, for instance, public school enrollment has plummeted by more than 4,000 students since 2017, compelling the San Francisco Unified School District to consider consolidating or closing schools. Florida has also seen movement towards school closures, with Hillsborough County already shutting several schools and Broward County contemplating similar actions.
Moreover, the Duval County School Board in Florida has taken initial steps toward closing six elementary schools, aiming to consolidate students onto other campuses by the 2025-26 school year. This move is intended to cut operational costs and make better use of sales tax revenues in light of soaring construction costs and dwindling student numbers. Notably, the majority of students affected by these proposed consolidations belong to minority and economically disadvantaged groups.
The National Center for Education Statistics reports that public schools enrolled 49 million students in 2023, but projections indicate a decrease to 46.9 million by 2031—a loss of over 2.1 million students. The Fordham Institute’s study also highlighted that schools in high-poverty areas, urban regions, and charter schools are especially vulnerable to these declines. This trend not only poses logistical challenges but also risks diminishing the quality of education, as schools contend with the looming expiration of billions in pandemic-related emergency funding.
The potential closures are contentious and fraught with educational and social implications, as research indicates that forcing students to switch schools can lead to trauma and negative outcomes, particularly if they are transferred to lower-performing institutions.