Category: Politics

On 11-13 April, severe flooding and landslides caused by heavy rainfall affected southern and south-eastern South Africa, particularly the provinces of KwaZulu-Natal and Eastern Cape. According to national authorities, at least 123,808 people were affected, 448 people died and over 30,000 are displaced, mostly in collective evacuation centres. The devastation in the most affected areas of KwaZulu-Natal and Eastern Cape provinces is immense: nearly 12,500 homes have been destroyed or damaged, 66 health centres affected, and 600 schools devastated which will put 270,000 students at risk. A National State of Disaster has been declared in response to the floods and landslides, and rescue teams have been deployed to the affected areas to provide humanitarian assistance to those most affected.

To better assist authorities and partners to respond to the situation, IOM in partnership with the South Africa Red Cross Society and in coordination with provincial and local authorities, deployed teams from 13 to 17 June to conduct baseline assessments at ward level. These assessments provide a snapshot of the number of displaced persons residing in 26 of the most affected wards in Ethekwini district. The assessments also provide an overview of the sectoral needs, gaps and potential solutions, including water and sanitation (WASH), food security, health, infrastructure and protection. Finally, a list of priority locations for further assessment were identified.

Source: International Organization for Migration

CHAD

ARMED ATTACK BY NSAG KILLS FIVE

On 11 July, an armed attack carried out by a non-State armed group (NSAG) in the western Lac region against a local Security Defence Force (SDF) position killed five SDF forces and injured two more. Two NSAG assailants were also gravely injured. Following the end of a military operation against NSAGs in Niger and Nigeria last June, the Chadian SDF is still on alert following threats of reprisals. The concerned area neighbours a settlement hosting the largest number of internally displaced persons (approximately 30,000 IDPs) in the region. These continuing security incidents have limited humanitarian access in the area.

CAMEROON

INCREASE IN NUMBER OF ATTACKS RECORDED IN THE WEST REGION

Between June and July 2022, three attacks were recorded in the West region. While the recent attacks are between NSAG and State Security Forces (SSF), the escalation of conflict is of concern for a region which hosts 85,000 displaced people from the North-West and South-West regions due to the crisis. On 7 June, a non-State armed group (NSAG) attacked a State Security Forces (SSF) post in Njitapon, Kouoptamo in Noun division, killing five SSF elements and injuring others. On 27 June, an NSAG attacked the Divisional Officer’s residence and the Gendarmerie office in Babadjou, Bamboutos division, resulting in injuries of some gendarmes and NSAG members. On 1 July, a NSAG attacked the Fondonera locality in Menoua division, allegedly burning two cars and three bikes in the market and looting some food items. No human casualties were reported, however, the incident caused fear among the population.

BURKINA FASO

ATTACK KILLS FIVE AND DAMAGES HUMANITARIAN WAREHOUSE

On 10 July, non-State armed group (NSAG) members attacked a military position in Barsalogho commune, northern Centre-Nord region. Initial reports indicate that five civilians were killed in the crossfire, including the manager of a humanitarian warehouse facility, and eight soldiers were wounded.

Considerable infrastructural damage was also reported, including to a humanitarian warehouse and to a community centre housing internally displaced persons (IDPs).

The security situation in Barsalogho has been deteriorating following the attacks of an IDP site in October and of the gendarmerie post in Foubé, a village to the north, in December 2021. On the main access route, NSAGs checkpoints are frequently set up, and goods, including humanitarian commodities, have been diverted. Barsalogho hosts the second largest number of IDPs in the Centre-Nord region (after the regional capital Kaya), with some 93,000 IDPs officially registered as of 30 April. Despite access constraints, humanitarian assistance continues.

CHOLERA EPIDEMIC DECLARED IN THE EST REGION

The Ministry of Health announced on 6 July that a case of cholera had been confirmed in Kantchari commune in the Est region.

According to WHO, the confirmed case has been declared cured and released and appropriate follow-up measures have been taken. WHO is preparing the deployment of cholera kits for pre-positioning and working on a regional response plan.

Source: UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs

Highlights

By the end of June, the early stages of the rainfall season are coming to an end. So far, the 2022 rainy season in West Africa has been characterised by variable conditions. Over the course of the month, rainfall deficits were particularly pronounced during the first dekad of June and mainly affected the Central Sahel (western Niger, north-eastern Burkina Faso, eastern Mali), central Mali, eastern Guinea, western Cote d’Ivoire, south-western Cameroon and the Lake Chad Basin. Over the course of the month of June rainfall improved and offset some of the early season deficits recorded in the westernmost parts of West Africa (Senegal, southern Mauritania, Guinea-Bissau), as well as in central Burkina Faso, central Chad and central Niger. Coastal countries including Benin, Togo, Ghana, parts of Nigeria and southern Cameroon, as well as the south-eastern parts of the region (southern Chad and CAR) benefitted from favourable rainfall conditions in June.

Over the past two (2) months (May-June 2022), the conditions reflect the patterns observed in June, with overall mixed conditions across the region. While some areas including the western (Senegal, southern Mauritania, Guinea-Bissau), southern (Ghana, Benin, Togo) and south-eastern (southern Chad, CAR, southern Cameroon) parts of the region experienced above normal rainfall, the seasonal rains were normal to below normal in the rest of West Africa. Particularly in the Central Sahel, the Lake Chad Basin, northwestern Nigeria and western Cote d’Ivoire, moderate to severe rainfall deficits were recorded during this period. While especially in the Sahelian areas these are unlikely to significantly impact the agricultural season, which usually starts a bit later, the progression of the rains in these areas will need to be monitored closely.

Vegetation conditions are below average over a wide area in the Sahel from western Mali across Burkina Faso and northern Nigeria to southern Chad. Vegetation deficits are particularly pronounced in the eastern parts of the region (in northern (Benin, Togo and Nigeria) and southern Chad). In some areas, these conditions are expected to improve due to above normal rains received in mid to late June. On the other hand, better than normal vegetation conditions can be observed in Senegal, northern Niger and Chad, where above normal rainfall was received in early June.

The short-term forecasts indicate that by early-July (10 July 2022), seasonal rainfall will likely be above average in the western part of the region (in Senegal, southern Mauritania, Guinea Bissau) as well as over western Guinea, Sierra Leone, western Liberia as well as south-eastern Cameroon and CAR. This might partially offset the rainfall deficits in the western parts of the Sahel (Senegal, southern Mauritania, and Guinea Bissau) and the lead to more favorable conditions during the early stages of the growing season.

According to the 2022 PRESASS seasonal forecast, average to above average seasonal rainfall is expected in most of the Sahelian Belt (from Senegal through to Chad), including Cabo Verde. Average to below average rainfall is expected in south-eastern Nigeria and south-western Cameroon. The seasonal forecast also suggests that the start of the season will be early to normal, with shorter than normal dry spells during the first half of the rainy season across the Sahelo-Sudanian zone.

Source: World Food Programme

1. IMPACT ON FOOD ACCESS AND AVAILABILITY

Wheat and wheat products account for 25 percent of the average total cereal consumption in Eastern Africa with the highest consumption per capita in Djibouti, Eritrea and Sudan. Up to 84 percent of wheat demand in the region is met by imports. Considering reliance on direct imports from Russia and Ukraine, rising global prices since the start of the war and significant internal challenges. Sudan, Kenya, Ethiopia, Somalia and South Sudan are likely to be the hardest hit by the ongoing conflict.

The Ukrainian Government banned the export of wheat, oats, millet, buckwheat and some other food products to forestall a food crisis and stabilize the market. The partial ban on wheat and grains by Russia effective 15 March through 30 June (read here) will further squeeze global supplies which in effect will cause shortfalls due to reduced imports of wheat in net importer countries. The shortfall might be partially compensated by other alternative products which would lead to increased demand for substitute products, pushing up prices of other cereals in the region.

Based on WFP’s calculations, access and availability of wheat-based products in Sudan is worrisome as almost 50 percent of wheat-based products are supplied by Russia and Ukraine while wheat domestically produced and current stocks alone are estimated to cover the domestic wheat demand for three months only.

With over 70 percent of total global production of sunflower oil originating from Russia and Ukraine, destabilized export trade, delays, and higher shipping costs will directly impact the global supply of sunflower-seed oil and consequently prices, further deepening vegetable oil supply chain woes experienced in the previous year.

Russia and Ukraine supplied 78 percent and 95 percent of sunflower-seed oil imports to Kenya and Sudan respectively.

Sudan is likely to be more vulnerable to anticipated conflictinduced trade disruptions once existing stocks of sunflowerseed oil are depleted.

Source: World Food Programme

Tunisian opposition lawmakers are in Paris to lobby against a controversial constitutional referendum taking place later this month, which they argue risks plunging the fragile Arab Spring democracy back into dictatorship.

For years, Tunisia’s bickering parties delivered gridlock in parliament and mounting public anger. So today, it’s strange to see onetime political foes here in Paris, united against one man — Tunisian President Kais Saied — and his new draft constitution.

“The international community hasn’t to recognize the Saied process in Tunisia because it’s not a legitimate process…,” said Makhloufi.

Sofiane Makhloufi is a member of parliament from Tunisia’s Tayyar party — which once supported Kais Saied. That was before Tunisia’s president dismissed his government, suspended parliament and seized wide-ranging powers in July 2021.

Now, President Saied wants Tunisians to vote on a new draft constitution in a July 25 referendum. The United States and European Union have called for an inclusive democratic process—one, critics say, that guided Tunisia’s last 2014 constitution, but not this one. Even the legal expert behind the new charter has disavowed it, saying it’s not what his committee originally drafted.

“He didn’t respect the (2014) constitution (but) he has been elected by the constitution. I think everybody in the world, and Tunisians, must not recognize the legitimacy Saied is (trying to get) for himself,” said Makhloufi.

In April, Makhloufi’s Tayyar and four other opposition parties formed a new opposition alliance, the National Salvation Front. It’s calling on Tunisians to boycott the referendum.

The opposition alliance includes the Islamist-inspired Ennahdha party, that retains fading but still sizable popular support. Ridha Driss is advisor to Ennahdha’s leader Rached Ghannouchi. He warns President Saied is bent on one-man rule and will ensure the constitution is passed, one way or another.

Also, part of the alliance is Ennahdha’s once-staunch enemy, the Qalb Tounes, or “Heart of Tunisia” party. Lawmaker Oussama Khlifi says his party is calling for national unity, as the only way to save Tunisia.

The tiny, North African country has faced a rocky ride toward democracy since its 2011 revolution that kicked off the wider Arab Spring revolt. Tunisia’s economy has stumbled, and politics have been marred by paralysis and corruption.

Many Tunisians hailed Saied’s unlikely presidential win in 2019. They cheered when the former law professor seized wide-ranging powers last year. But today, public support is fading and disenchantment growing as the country battles a mounting economic crisis. Experts predict low voter turnout for this upcoming referendum.

For his part, President Saied denies authoritarian goals and says he’s committed to political freedoms. He sees this new draft constitution, which among other things, strengthens presidential powers and waters down legislative ones, as correcting a dysfunctional system.

If the constitution is passed, the opposition fears more unrest and troubled times for Tunisia in the weeks and months ahead.

Source: Voice of America