2023 is projected to be the year with the highest greenhouse gas emissions ever recorded. The world is expected to emit nearly 59 gigatonnes of carbon-equivalent greenhouse gases, which equates to about 2,000 tonnes per second. On average, each global citizen now emits approximately 7.4 tonnes of these emissions annually, broken down into various sectors including energy, industry, agriculture, transport, and building heating and cooling.
According to World Economic Forum, This increasing trend in emissions means that current levels are about one-third higher than those needed to limit global warming to 1.5°C, a target that would have been feasible with an appropriate global program initiated in 2021. To meet this goal, per-capita emissions must reduce to below 5 tonnes in the next decade and further to around 2.5 tonnes by 2040.
However, there is positive news in these projections. If countries fulfill their commitments made in their Nationally Determined Contributions, 2023 will also be remembered as the year when global carbon emissions peaked. While the pace of change is slow and varies across countries, recent developments demonstrate the technological and economic feasibility of transitioning to a low-carbon economy. The upcoming COP 28 conference presents an opportunity to acknowledge the diverse starting points and trajectories of different countries.
A map categorizing countries by their per capita greenhouse gas emission levels in 2023 shows a decline in emissions in almost all of the northern hemisphere, Australia, and New Zealand. Notably, this group now includes China and the United States, the world’s two largest emitters. Europe and Japan are also making significant strides towards decarbonization. Currently, 42 countries, accounting for over half of the world’s emissions, are on a path of steadily declining emissions.
The challenge of reaching net-zero emissions involves moving more countries into the category of low emitters on a downward trend. Presently, only four out of 180 countries fall into this category. The focus is on reducing emissions rapidly in the 52 high-emitting countries, which account for two-thirds of global emissions. Israel and Serbia have shown progress by moving from high to medium emitters.
Countries with decreasing emissions are disproving two myths: economic growth necessitates higher emissions, and policies targeting high-emission sectors are unimportant. The United States and China are examples of countries growing economically while reducing emissions, thanks to investments in renewable energy and electric vehicles.
Developing countries, however, are mostly seeing an increase in per capita emissions, now accounting for over 40% of global emissions. Their contribution is vital for achieving the 1.5°C target. Many of these increases are linked to land-use changes for agricultural production, a significant issue in regions like the Congo, Papua, and Amazon forest basins. Despite challenges, countries like Romania and South Korea serve as examples of successful forest management and sustainable agricultural practices.