“This can be attributed to seasonality, with January usually not being a strong month for vehicle sales,” according to an analysis of Namibia’s vehicles sales for January 2013 by Simonis Storm Securities issued on Friday.
An analyst at the company, Rudolf Kuschke noted in the study that on a monthly basis, the figure remained relatively unchanged from 419 units in December 2012, although, stripping out the seasonality, the figure was 14.9 per cent lower than in January 2012 – the biggest annual decrease since 2009.
The figure recorded was the lowest recorded in 17 months and remained below the four-month average of 453 units.
“We expect the monthly rebound to continue into the next couple of months due to the end of the tax year and the contribution from Government tenders,” Kuschke stressed.
Commercial vehicle sales increased in January 2013 from its two-year low in December 2012, although on an annual basis the downward trend remained intact.
The 4.9 per cent year-on-year decrease was however much slower than the 37.4 per cent decline recorded in January and, similarly to passenger vehicles, signalled an end of the downward trend which started in September 2012.
Total commercial vehicle sales recorded for the month were 251 units, compared to a monthly average for the year 2012 of 623 units.
Kuschke indicated that the first quarter is usually a good one for new vehicle sales, with seasonal factors boosting the figures.
The January figures tentatively indicated a rebound from the downward trend over the last five months, with the annual slowdowns decelerating.
The budget speech next week will also give an indication of what Government spending will be like in 2013, compared to the aggressive spending experienced in the last two years, he stated.
“Given our view that slightly more subdued growth might continue in 2013, this impacts negatively on overall economic growth for the country,” said Kuschke.
He added that this is in line with the company’s view that the economy will grow slower in 2013 (4.2 per cent) than in 2012 (4.7 per cent).