HIGHLIGHTS

• A new weather system has formed in the south-west Indian Ocean and intensified into a moderate tropical storm, named Eloise, today.

• Tropical Storm Eloise is expected to make landfall in northern Madagascar around 19 to 20 January, bringing heavy rains and flooding.

• Although the storm will probably lose intensity while crossing Madagascar, it may regain strength after reaching the Mozambique Channel.

• Early predictions indicate that Tropical Storm Eloise will likely move towards central Mozambique, making landfall between 23 and 24 January.

SITUATION OVERVIEW

A low-pressure weather system that formed in the south-west Indian Ocean on 14 January has evolved into a moderate tropical storm, named Eloise, and is expected to make landfall in north-eastern Madagascar between 19 and 20 January, according to different weather services. The storm, which is currently about 700 km from the coast of Madagascar, continues to strengthen and could hit the country between Antalaha and Tamatave, potentially as a severe tropical storm, according to the Global Disaster Alert Coordination System. Although the storm is expected to weaken into a low pressure system after making landfall, it will likely evolve into a severe tropical storm after entering the Mozambique Channel on 21 January and could hit central Mozambique—potentially as a tropical cyclone—between 23 and 24 January.

In Madagascar, the weather system could bring heavy winds and rains from tomorrow, 19 January, and cause floods and landslides in the north of the country, including areas affected by Tropical Storm Chalane in December 2019. More than 3 million people in Madagascar could be exposed to windspeeds upwards of 60km/hour, according to WFP’s Automated Disaster Analysis and Mapping (ADAM).

In Mozambique, Tropical Storm Eloise is likely to affect the provinces of Inhambane, Sofala and Zambezia, according to the Mozambican National Meteorological Institute (INAM). More than 2.6 million people could be exposed to high windspeeds, according to ADAM.

HUMANITARIAN PREPAREDNESS

Humanitarians and authorities in Madagascar are coordinating preparedness activities. A meeting will be organized on 19 January by the National Office for Risk and Disaster Management (BNGRC) to prepare for potential assessments and/or response. Humanitarian actors have activated the local contingency plan in the north-eastern part of the country and the early warning system at the community level has been reinforced. Emergency stocks are available in many districts in the most at-risk areas. In Mozambique, the newly-created National Institute for Management and Disaster Risk Reduction (INGD) -which has replaced the former National Disaster Management Institute (INGC)- is closely following the weather system’s trajectory and working with humanitarian partners to prepare for any response required.

Source: UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs